Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue May 21 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1708 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant Rainfall in the Caribbean: A deep layered trough will dig southward across the western Caribbean Sea today through Wed then lift out to the northeast through Fri. This feature is expected to destabilize the atmosphere, and support very active convection across the south-central Caribbean beginning today, with strong afternoon convection across the Greater Antilles. Convection is then expected to develop north and northeastward across the central Caribbean and Greater Antilles, from Jamaica and eastern Cuba, to western Puerto Rico, Wed through Fri. Latest computer model guidance currently suggests that the highest rainfall accumulations with this event may occur across Hispaniola. Residents in these locations should remain alert for significant rainfall and potential flash flooding. Please refer to your local weather office for more specific information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough curves southwestward from the coast of Guinea- Bissau near 11N16W to 07.5N19W to 06.5N24W. An ITCZ continues westward from 06.5N24W to 06.5N34W to 02N48.5W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 08.5N east of 33W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring along the eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough, and extends to the coasts of Panama and northern Colombia. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Isolated moderated convection is depicted over the SE Gulf including the Straits of Florida in association to a surface trough across the area. Elsewhere, weak high pressure extends from the eastern U.S. into the northern Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds prevail across the Gulf, with slight seas. Hazy conditions due to agricultural fires in Mexico continue across most of the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, high pressure will remain NE of the basin through the end of the week to produce moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds across most of the basin, becoming SE to S Fri and Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section above for more information about Significan Rainfall Event in the Caribbean. A deep layered upper trough along 75W extends from the western Atlantic to western Cuba, and is digging southward across the NW Caribbean. This energetic feature has initiated isolated to scattered moderate convection across the waters between western Jamaica and western Cuba, and has enhanced convection across the SW Caribbean described above. Weak high pressure ridge prevails just N of the area, to the E of 74W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over northern South America is supporting fresh to strong trade winds across the south-central. Seas in this area are 6 to 9 ft. East of 77 W easterly winds are moderate to locally fresh with seas 4 to 7 ft. Otherwise, gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas exist across the southwestern basin and north of the Cayman Islands. Latest observations along with earlier satellite imagery indicate haze and smoke produced by agricultural fires in Central America are causing reduced visibilities, down to 4 to 6 nm across the northwestern basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, a deep layer trough will dig southward across the western Caribbean through Wed, then lift out to the NE through Fri. This feature will support very active weather across the central portions of the basin this afternoon, and will gradually shift NE through Fri. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will develop in the central Caribbean this afternoon, ahead of the active weather, and shift northeastward through Thu while diminishing to mostly fresh speeds. Smoke due to agricultural fires in Central America continues across the Gulf of Honduras, but continue to thin out. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends across the northern waters, from 30N67W to 1011 mb low pressure near 28N76W then continues across the Florida Straits. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is depicted from 22N to 26N between 65.5W and 78.5W, supported by a deep layered upper trough. Moderate NE winds prevail across the waters NW of the trough. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across this area. To the east, 1025 mb high pressure is centered over the eastern Atlantic near 32.5N24W, and extends a ridge W-SW to near 24N64W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail within the ridge between 20N and 30W. Seas are 2 to 4 ft within the ridge. South of 20N, mainly moderate NE to E trade winds prevail, where seas are 4 to 7 ft, with a few small areas to 8 ft possible. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned trough will weaken by Wed morning. A trough will develop just southeast of the weakening trough and extend into the central Bahamas on Wed, then drift eastward through Thu night. Moderate winds and seas will prevail in the western Atlantic with the trough through midweek. Weak low pressure is expected to develop just N of Hispaniola Thu night and shift N-NE through Sat, accompanied by moderate to fresh winds and active weather.