Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Mar 31 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends southwestward from low pressure that is in northwest Colombia to across central Panama, continuing southwestward to 06N90W to 05N100W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 05N110W to 03N120W to 02N130W to 00N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 104W-115W, and from 04N to 08N between 117W-126W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Broad high pressure anchored by a 1026 mb high just north of the area 31N138W is the main feature driving the weather pattern over these waters. The associated gradient is allowing for fresh to strong northwest to north winds over the waters west of Baja California, and for gentle to moderate north to northeast winds over the waters elsewhere west of Mexico, including near the Revillagigedo Islands. A recent scatterometer satellite data pass captured some of these winds. Seas over these waters are 6 to 8 ft in decaying long-period NW swell. Lower seas of 5 to 7 ft in mix SW and NW swell are over the waters between the Gulf of Tehuantepec region and Acapulco. Light to gentle winds are evident at the northern Gulf of California, while gentle to moderate NW winds are noted for the rest of the Gulf. Seas in the Gulf are 1 to 3 ft, except for slightly higher seas of 2 to 4 ft in the southern section. For the forecast, high pressure over the eastern Pacific will support fresh to strong NW to N winds across the Baja California offshore waters through Wed while expanding in coverage before diminishing on Thu. Winds in the northern and central Gulf of California are expected to increase to fresh to strong speeds Tue evening through Wed morning, with potential for winds in the northern part of the Gulf to reach near-gale late Tue night into early on Wed. A new set of NW swell producing rough to very rough seas is forecast begin to propagate through the waters off Baja California Tue night. Marine conditions improve afterward. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Marine conditions remain relatively quiet throughout this part of the discussion area. For the forecast, relatively quiet conditions will continue over these waters for the next few days, with seas below 8 ft. Winds pulsing to fresh speeds are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo at night into the morning hours through Wed night, then to fresh to strong speeds through late in the week, with seas remaining below 8 ft. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA.... A weakening cold front extends from near 30N125W to 29N129W, then transitions to a trough to 27N140W. The front is defined on satellite imagery as a narrow line of mostly broken to overcast clouds with possible scattered showers. The gradient between the high and relatively lower pressure near the ITCZ is sustaining moderate to fresh NE to E trades and seas of 7 to 10 ft due to the combination of long-period NW to N swell and wind generated waves. Seas are less than 8 ft elsewhere north of the ITCZ and trough, but to 8 ft across some areas south of the ITCZ and trough to due to long-period NW to N swell mixing with a S swell component. For the forecast, the aforementioned seas of 7 to 10 ft will subside some through Thu as they become confined to the far western waters. Little change is expected elsewhere through Thu over the open Pacific waters.