Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Nov 27 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 06N93W to 08N105W. The ITCZ extends from 08N105W to 10N105W to 11N140W. No significant convection is noted at this time. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong gap winds are ongoing across the Gulf of Tehuantepec due to building high pressure north of the area. A ridge farther north is support gentle to locally moderate breezes elsewhere, with moderate seas. For the forecast, strong to near-gale force gap winds will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec overnight, accompanied by rough to very rough seas. This is associated with high pressure building north of the area behind a cold front. These winds will diminish Wed as the high pressure weakens and shifts eastward, but rough seas will linger into Wed night. Looking ahead, similar conditions are likely to occur in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri into the weekend, with winds briefly reaching minimal gale force Fri night. Farther north, fresh NW winds will follow a weak cold front moving across the Gulf of California Thu and Fri. Elsewhere, weak ridging will support gentle breezes and slight seas through Sun. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds, and seas of 4 to 6 ft, dominate N of the monsoon trough. S of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate SW to W winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail. For the forecast, light to gentle winds are expected north of the monsoon trough, except for occasional pulses of gentle to moderate gap winds in the Papagayo region. Gentle to moderate SW to W winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough. NE swell from gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will support combined seas to 9 ft off Guatemala through Wed. Elsewhere, cross equatorial SW swell up to 8 ft will impact the offshore waters from Ecuador to western Panama into Thu, then gradually subside thereafter. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Weak ridging extends across the waters north of 15N, anchored by 1021 mb high pressure near 29N121W, and south of a stalled frontal boundary extending east-to-west just north of the region. Moderate SW winds are noted over the waters north of 25N and west of 135W, between the high pressure and the low pressure to the northwest. Seas are 6 to 7 ft in this area. The relatively weak ridge is supporting gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere across the region. Combined seas are 6 to 9 ft primarily in southerly swell S of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, low pressure near 31N144W will drift to the northeast, dragging a cold front across the waters north of 25N and west of 120W through Fri, before lifting northward. To the south, moderate to locally fresh trade winds will persist west of 110W through the end of the week.