Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Tue Apr 01 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Guinea near 08N13W and southwestward to near 06N22W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 02N30W to 01N40W and to near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 37W and 44W, and also within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 28W and 31W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A rather strong squall line moving rapidly eastward across the NE Gulf is evident on both radar and satellite imagery. It is supported by an upper-level trough, and is denoted by scattered showers and thunderstorms, some possibly severe, that extend from along and just inland the southeastern United States southwestward to across north-central Florida, and continues into the NE Gulf roughly to near 28N between the west-central coast of Florida and 86W. This activity may produce strong gusty winds and rough seas. Otherwise, weak high pressure extends from the western Atlantic to the eastern Gulf. The gradient in place is allowing for moderate to fresh winds over much of the Gulf, except gentle winds over the eastern and NW Gulf. Seas are in the 3 to 5 ft range over much of the Gulf, except 2 to 4 ft over the eastern Gulf. For the forecast, the squall and associated shower and thunderstorm activity is forecast to weaken this evening, producing strong winds and rough seas in the region. A surface trough over the Yucatan Peninsula is expected to move westward through the Bay of Campeche tonight, promoting locally fresh southeast to northeast winds over the region into early Tue. A similar pattern is expected Tue night, with to fresh to locally strong winds in this area. Elsewhere, fresh to strong SE to S winds will develop Tue night across much of the basin west of 85W, as the pressure gradient tightens between building high pressure in the western Atlantic and strengthening low pressure in the south- central United States. Building rough seas of 8 to 11 ft are expected in this region Wed morning through late week. East of 85W, moderate southeast winds Tue night will strengthen to fresh to locally strong speeds Wed into Thu, including through the Florida Straits. On a side noted: Areas of dense sea fog reducing visibility to 1 nm or less may again form tonight along some sections of the Texas coast while patchy fog may form near the southwestern Louisiana coast. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between strong high pressure north of the area and a 1010 mb over northern Colombia is supporting fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere east of 80W. Moderate to locally fresh winds are found over the western Caribbean. Seas of 6-8 ft prevail E of 80W, with seas in the 4-7 ft range W of 80W. For the forecast, the fresh to strong trade winds will pulse each night and morning offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela through Tue. Rough seas are expected with these winds. Winds are expected to strengthen to near- gale force Wed into this weekend as the pressure gradient strengthens between the Colombian low and high pressure building over the western Atlantic. Locally very rough seas over 12 ft will be possible with these winds. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong east to southeast winds are forecast to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras through Tue, before winds increase to near- gale force speeds and locally rough seas develop for the second half of the week. Large E swell will continue to impact the Tropical Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages most of the week, maintaining rough seas. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trade winds, with locally strong pulses, are expected across the remainder of the Caribbean through midweek, before widespread fresh to strong winds and rough seas dominate the basin Thu into the upcoming weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad high pressure dominates the Atlantic waters, anchored by a strong 1031 mb high center that is located east of Bermuda near 33N56W. The associated gradient supports moderate to fresh easterly winds and 7 to 10 ft seas over open Atlantic waters west of 35W. A cold front from well north of the area stretches southwestward to 31N40W, then curves to the northwest to near 35N52W. No significant weather is occurring with this front. Winds are 20 kt or less near the front, however, seas of 8 ft in long-period north swell are over the waters north of 27N between 40W and 50W. In the eastern part of the area, gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4 to 7 ft are north of 20N and east of about 40W. Moderate to fresh winds along with seas of 6 to 7 ft are present elsewhere. Scattered showers and thunderstorms as seen on satellite imagery are quickly moving eastward north of 27N west of 70W. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong south winds and locally rough seas are expected this evening north of 29N well off the coast of Florida to 70W, as the pressure gradient strengthens between high pressure in the central Atlantic and low pressure moving through the eastern United States. Strong winds will expand eastward Tue morning, impacting areas as far east as 65W. A cold front associated with the low pressure system is slated to push offshore of the southeastern United States on Tue. Winds behind the front are forecast to veer to the west and diminish in its wake. Elsewhere, high pressure over the central Atlantic will drift slowly eastward through Tue, and fresh to locally strong trade winds will pulse along the periphery of the ridge, mainly south of 25N. Rough seas in excess of 8 ft will accompany these winds. Looking ahead, high pressure is forecast to develop over the western Atlantic by midweek. A tightening pressure gradient between the high and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong east to southeast winds and rough seas across the waters south of 27N, including through the Atlantic Passages into the Caribbean.