Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Nov 27 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Long-Period NW Swell in the Atlantic: Long-period NW swell with 12-14 ft seas continue to propagate across the north-central Atlantic subtropical waters in the wake of a dissipating cold front that extends from 31N35W to 23N50W. Reinforcing NW swell of 12-16 seconds and seas to 16 ft will propagate through the waters north of 25N east of 55W through Thu. Please read the latest high seas forecast that was issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Sierra Leone near 09N13W and continues to 08N15W. The ITCZ extends from 08N15W to 04N25W to 03N50W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 06N to 08N between 14W and 16W, and from 04N to 06N between 32W and 38W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from near Fort Walton Beach, Florida to La Pesca, Tamaulipas, Mexico. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is noted at this time. Moderate NW winds and 2-4 ft are noted over the Straits of Florida and off northwest Cuba. Gentle breezes and 1-3 ft seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the cold front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to the north- central Gulf near 27N90W tonight, then lift N of the area on Wed. A second cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf waters Thu morning. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will develop over the western Gulf Wed and Wed night ahead of the front, which will reach from Cedar Key, Florida to near Tampico, Mexico early on Fri morning, and from the Straits of Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico by early Sat morning. The front will exit the basin later on Sat. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas will follow this front. Gusty winds to gale force may occur over the west- central and SW Gulf in the wake of the front on Fri. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A plume of deep, tropical moisture ahead of a mid to upper level over Cuba and the Bahamas is bringing showers and thunderstorms to Jamaica this afternoon. Related showers and thunderstorms are also moving northward into Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. 1008 mb low pressure persists just east of San Andres Island in the southwest Caribbean. The gradient between the low pressure and higher pressure over the western Atlantic is supporting moderate fresh NE to E winds and 4-6 ft seas across the basin. For the forecast, the pattern will continue to support moderate to fresh trade winds over the central and eastern Caribbean, and moderate to fresh NE winds over the NW part of the basin trough Sat night. Locally strong NE winds are likely in the lee of eastern Cuba through Wed. The above mentioned low pressure will remain over the SW Caribbean through the upcoming weekend. Moderate to fresh winds are expected on the N semicircle of the low center. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details about long period swell affecting western Atlantic. 1024 mb high pressure is centered near 29N66W. Farther east, the aforementioned dissipating cold front extends from 31N35W to 23N50W. East of that, 1019 mb high pressure is centered west of the Canary Islands near 27N25W. Fresh to strong W to NW winds follow the cold front north of 29N, with NW swell extending west of the front to 60W, north of 20N. The front is breaking up the subtropical ridge, resulting in mostly moderate trade winds farther south over the tropical Atlantic, where 5 to 7 ft seas persist. Gentle breezes and 4 to 6 ft seas in northwest swell persist elsewhere, except for 7 to 10 ft seas in the eastern Atlantic north of 25N and east of 25W. For the forecast west of 55W, ridge will dominate waters of 25N while a surface trough remains near the southeast Bahamas. The trough will move westward, reaching the central Bahamas and eastern Cuba by Wed night, and the NW Bahamas and central Cuba late on Thu before weakening. The next cold front will enter the NE Florida offshore waters tonight before stalling and lifting N of the area late Wed. Another cold front is forecast to move offshore NE Florida Thu night into Fri, extending from 31N70W to south Florida by Sat morning, and from 31N60W to western Cuba by Sun morning. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will follow the front.