Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue May 21 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica near 11N86W to 1007 mb low pres near 11N108W to 08N129W. The ITCZ extends from 08N129W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 10N between 92W-98W and from 08N-15N between 103W-114W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong high pressure continues to stretch across the NE Pacific southeastward to near 20N114W. This ridge is supporting moderate to fresh NW to N winds N of Cabo San Lucas, and light to gentle winds between Cabo San Lucas and the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in NW swell north of Cabo San Lazaro, and 6 to 7 ft in a mix of NW and SW swell south of Cabo San Lazaro. Fresh to strong winds are noted near Puntal Eugenia, with seas to 7 ft. Elsewhere, including the Gulf of California, light to gentle winds prevail, with 3 to 4 ft seas at the entrance of the Gulf and 2 ft or less elsewhere. Seas of 5 to 7 ft in SW swell dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters. Smoke from regional agricultural fires has spread across the offshore waters over southern Mexico which could reduce visibilities. For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through the week. This will support moderate to fresh NW to N winds W of the Baja California peninsula through Sat night. NW swell moving across the Baja California offshore waters will persist through Thu. Seas are expected to build 8 to 10 ft N of Punta Eugenia tonight through Wed, with seas subsiding below 8 ft on Fri. Light concentrations of smoke due to agricultural fires is expected to maintain hazy skies and may reduce visibility over portions of southern Mexico through Tue. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Numerous strong convection is impacting the offshore waters from Costa Rica to Colombia, N of 02N between 77W and 86W, including the Gulf of Panama. These storms are bringing frequent lightning strikes and likely gusty winds and locally rough seas. Exercise caution in this area. South of monsoon trough around 07N, moderate to fresh winds are noted, including the South American offshore waters. North of 07N, gentle to moderate winds are pulsing in the Gulf of Papagayo but light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 6 to 8 ft across the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters due to long period SW swell. Otherwise, seas range 5 to 7 ft across the rest of the offshore waters. Smoke from agricultural fires across the region from Mexico may be impacting areas as far as northern Costa Rica. For the forecast, moderate to strong thunderstorms will keep impacting waters from Costa Rica to Colombia through Wed. For waters south of 07N, winds will be moderate to fresh through Fri. North of 07N, light to gentle winds will prevail. Long period SW swell will continue to bring seas of 6 to 8 ft in the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters through Tue. Seas of 5 to 7 ft will persist elsewhere through the rest of the week. By the weekend, winds across the rest of the area will be light to gentle. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong high pressure of 1038 mb, located N of the forecast area near 40N141W, extends a ridge across the waters N of 15N and W of 110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure along the ITCZ is forcing moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds N of 06N and W of 115W. Seas are in the 7 to 9 ft range within these winds in NW to N swell. Elsewhere south of 06N, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft in merging N and SW swell prevail W of 110W. South of the ITCZ, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in mixed SW and SE swell. For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern across the area N of 10N and W of 110W through the week. This will maintain mostly moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate to rough seas along the southern periphery of the ridge, and mainly W of 130W. Winds could pulse to strong through Tue. Cross equatorial SW swell will continue to combine with northerly swell to dominate area waters through Wed before subsiding. Seas of 8 to 10 ft across the trade wind zone will begin to slowly subside by Wed, and subside below 8 ft by Fri.