Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue May 21 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant Rainfall in the Caribbean: A deep layer trough will dig southward across the western Caribbean Sea Mon night through Fri. With increasing moisture being forecast east of this trough, there is a chance for heavy rain developing from near Jamaica eastward across Hispaniola to near Puerto Rico from Wed through Fri. Residents in these locations need to stay alert and refer to their local weather offices for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough curves southwestward from the coast of Guinea- Bissau near Bissau to 05N29W. An ITCZ continues westward from 05N29W to 04N45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near and south of the monsoon trough from 01N to 08N between 10W and 28W. No significant convection is near the ITCZ based on the latest analysis. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms near the coast of Panama and northern Colombia. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A modest surface ridge reaches southwestward from the Florida Panhandle to near Veracruz, Mexico. Mainly moderate NE to SE winds and seas at 3 to 4 ft are present north of the Yucatan Peninsula, at the eastern Bay of Campeche and the northwestern Gulf. Gentle ENE to SE winds with 2 to 3 ft seas dominate the rest of the Gulf. Latest observations along with earlier VIS satellite imagery reveal haze and smoke produced by agricultural fires in Mexico is causing reduced visibilities, down to 4 to 6 nm across the western Gulf. For the forecast, a frontal trough extends across south Florida into the eastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds prevail across the Gulf behind the front, with slight seas. High pressure northeast of the basin will produce moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds across most of the Gulf Tue night through the end of the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough runs eastward from near the Cayman Islands to beyond central Cuba. Aided by moist divergent flow aloft, scattered showers and thunderstorms are flaring up near Jamaica and eastern Cuba. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the basin. Otherwise, a surface ridge extending southwestward from the central Atlantic to near the southeast Bahamas continues a trade-wind pattern across much of the basin. Fresh to strong E winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are evident at the south- central basin, including the ABC Islands. Gentle NE to ESE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas exist at the southwestern basin and near the Cayman Islands. Moderate with locally fresh E to ESE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. Latest observations along with earlier VIS satellite imagery indicate haze and smoke produced by agricultural fires in Central America is causing reduced visibilities, down to 4 to 6 nm across the western basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the aforementioned surface ridge and lower pressure over northern South America is supporting fresh to strong E winds in the south-central basin. A deep layer trough will dig southward across the western basin Mon night through Fri, supporting active weather east of 80W Tue through Fri. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will develop in the central basin Tue and shift eastward through Thu while diminishing to mostly fresh. Smoke and haze across the western basin should gradually thin out over the next day or so. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A modest stationary front stretches west-southwestward from south of Bermuda across 30N68W and a 1009 mb low near 29N78W to just off southeastern Florida. A surface trough runs east-northeastward from central Cuba across the southeast Bahamas to near 25N70W. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen up to 80 nm along either side of these features. Enhanced by divergent winds aloft, convergent moist flow between these features are producing scattered showers and strong thunderstorms from 23N to 27N between the northwest/central Bahamas and 71W. Convergent trade winds are generating widely scattered moderate convection near the coast of Suriname and French Guiana. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Moderate NE winds are found off northeastern Florida, while moderate SW winds are seen south of Bermuda near the stationary front. Seas at both areas range from 4 to 6 ft. Otherwise, a surface ridge extending southwestward from the central Atlantic to near the southeast Bahamas is supporting light to gentle winds along with 2 to 4 ft seas north of 20N between 30W and the Florida/Georgia coast. Near the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands, moderate with locally fresh NNE to NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft exist north 13N between the Africa coast and 30W. For the tropical Atlantic from 05N to 20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate NE to ESE trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft are present. Light to gentle with locally moderate monsoonal and southerly winds and 5 to 8 ft seas in moderate to large southerly swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, scattered showers and thunderstorms prevail across the western Atlantic between the stationary front and 70W. The front will move southeastward and stall from near 31N72W to southeastern Florida late Tue. A trough will develop southeast of the weakening front and extend into the central Bahamas early on Wed, and drift eastward through Fri night. Fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail in the western Atlantic with the front/trough through midweek, then light to gentle winds and slight seas are expected through Fri.