Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun May 19 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from a 1007 mb low pressure located over northern Colombia near 10N74W to 12N100W to 08N115W. The ITCZ continues from 07N115W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 13N between 95W and 103W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge is the main feature controlling the weather pattern across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. This system supports moderate to fresh NW to N winds N of Cabo San Lazaro, and gentle to moderate winds between Cabo San Lazaro and Cabo San Lucas. Seas are 5 to 7 ft within these winds. Elsewhere, including the Gulf of California, light to gentle winds prevail, with the exception of gentle to moderate SW to W winds over the northern part of the Gulf of California where seas are in the 3 to 4 ft range. Elsewhere across the Gulf, seas are 3 ft or less. Seas of 5 to 7 ft dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters. Medium concentration of smoke, due to agricultural fires, may reduce visibility over southern Mexico. For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through at least mid-week. This system, along with lower pressures over Mexico will continue to support moderate to fresh NW to N winds W of the Baja California peninsula, increasing to locally strong speeds N of Cabo San Lazaro tonight through Mon night. Large NW swell is forecast to impact the outer forecast waters of Baja California Norte beginning on Mon. Seas of 8 to 9 ft are likely expected N of Punta Eugenia through mid-week. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds are ongoing over the Central America offshore waters along with moderate seas in the 4 to 6 ft range due to long period SW swell. For the forecast, the monsoon trough extending along 11N-12N will help to induce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Central America waters over the next couple of days. Winds will remain moderate or weaker early this week. Southerly swell propagating across the regional waters will support seas of 4 to 6 ft, building to 6 to 8 ft across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands later today into Mon. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure, located N of the forecast region, extends a ridge across the waters N of 15N and W of 110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure along the ITCZ is forcing fresh to strong NE to E trades from 05N to 16N west of 132W per scatterometer data. Seas are in the 8 to 10 ft range within these winds. Elsewhere under the influence of the ridge, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail. For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern across the area N of 10N and W of 110W through at least mid-week with moderate to locally fresh trade winds and moderate seas along the southern periphery of its associated ridge. The high pressure will strengthen later today into Mon bringing some increase in winds across the offshore waters of Baja California, and in the trade wind zone. Long period SW swell will continue to propagate across the forecast waters today.